Publications

Koehler, D. J. (in press). Can journalistic "false balance" distort public perception of consensus in expert opinion? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied.

Pennycook, G., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2015). Everyday consequences of analytic thinking. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24, 425-432.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Barr, N., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2015). On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit. Judgment and Decision Making, 10, 549-563.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2015). Is the cognitive reflection test a measure of both reflection and intuition? Behavior Research Methods, published online ahead of print.

Pennycook, G., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2015). What makes us think? A three-stage dual-process model of analytic engagement. Cognitive Psychology, 80, 34-72.

Koehler, D. J., Langstaff, J., & Liu, W. (2015). A simulated financial savings task for studying consumption and retirement decision making. Journal of Economic Psychology, 46, 89-97.

Peetz, J., Buehler, R., Koehler, D. J. & Moher, E. (2015). Bigger not better: Unpacking future expenses inflates spending predictions. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 37, 19-30.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Barr, N., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2014). The role of analytic thinking in moral judgements and values. Thinking & Reasoning, 20, 188-214.

Poon, C. S. K., Koehler, D. J., & Buehler, R. (2014). On the psychology of self-prediction: Consideration of situational barriers to intended actions. Judgment and Decision Making, 9, 207-225.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Barr, N., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2014). Cognitive style and religiosity: The role of conflict detection. Memory & Cognition, 42, 1-10.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2013).  Belief bias during reasoning among religious believers and skepticsPsychonomic Bulletin and Review, 20, 806-811.

Newell, B.R., Koehler, D.J., James, G., Rakow, T., & van Ravenzwaaij, D. (2013).  Probability matching in risky choice: The interplay of feedback and strategy availabilityMemory & Cognition, 41, 329-338.

Pennycook, G., Fugelsang, J. A., & Koehler, D. J. (2012). Are we good at detecting conflict during reasoning? Cognition, 124, 101-106.

Pennycook, G., Cheyne, J. A., Seli, P., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2012). Analytic cognitive style predicts religious and paranormal belief. Cognition, 123, 335-346.

Brenner, L. A., Griffin, D. W., & Koehler, D. J. (2012). A case-based model of probability and pricing judgments: Biases in buying and selling uncertainty. Management Science, 58, 159-178.

James, G., & Koehler, D. J. (2011). Banking on a bad bet: Probability matching in risky choice is linked to expectation generation. Psychological Science, 22, 707-711.

Koehler, D. J., White, R. J., & John, L. K. (2011). Good intentions, optimistic self-predictions, and missed opportunities. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 2, 90-96.

Koehler, D. J., & James, G. (2010). Probability matching and strategy availability. Memory & Cognition, 38, 667-676.

Moher, E., & Koehler, D. J. (2010). Bracketing effects on risk tolerance: Generalizability and underlying mechanisms. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 339-346.

Koehler, D. J., & James, G. (2009). Probability matching in choice under uncertainty: Intuition versus deliberation. Cognition, 113, 123-127.

Poon, C. S. K., & Koehler, D. J. (2008). Person theories: Their temporal stability and relation to intertrait inferences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 34, 965-977.

Åstebro, T., & Koehler, D. J. (2007). Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 381-403.

White, C. M., & Koehler, D. J. (2007). Choice strategies in multiple-cue probability learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 33, 757-768.

Koehler, D. J., & Poon, C. S. K. (2006). Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 42, 517-524.

Koehler, D. J., & Beauregard, T. A. (2006). Illusion of confirmation from exposure to another's hypothesis. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 61-78.

Poon, C. S. K., & Koehler, D. J. (2006). Lay personality knowledge and dispositionist thinking: A knowledge-activation framework. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 42, 177-191.

Brenner, L., Griffin, D., & Koehler, D. J. (2005). Modeling patterns of probability calibration with Random Support Theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 97, 64-81.

LaBella, C., & Koehler, D. J. (2004). Dilution and confirmation of probability judgments based on nondiagnostic evidence. Memory & Cognition, 32, 1076-1089.

White, C. M., & Koehler, D. J. (2004). Missing information in multiple-cue probability learning. Memory & Cognition, 32, 1007-1018.

Koehler, D. J., White, C. M., & Grondin, R. (2003). An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability. Cognitive Psychology, 46, 152-197.

Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L. A., & Griffin, D. (2002).  The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory.  In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (pp. 686-715). Cambridge University Press.

King, R. N., & Koehler, D. J. (2000). Illusory correlations in graphological inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 336-348.

Newby-Clark, I. R., Ross, M., Buehler, R., Koehler, D. J., & Griffin, D. (2000). People focus on optimistic and ignore pessimistic scenarios while predicting their task completion times. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6, 171-182.

Koehler, D. J. (2000). Probability judgment in three-category classification learning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 26, 28-52.

Brenner, L. A., & Koehler, D. J. (1999). Subjective probability of disjunctive hypotheses: Local-weight models for decomposition of evidential support. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 16-47.

Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L. A., & Tversky, A. (1997). The enhancement effect in probability judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 293-313.

Harvey, N., Koehler, D. J., & Ayton, P. (1997). Judgments of decision effectiveness: Actor-observer differences in overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, 267-282.

Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (1997). Confidence judgments by actors and observers. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 221-242.

Koehler, D. J., Brenner, L. A., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Confidence and accuracy in trait inference: Judgment by similarity. Acta Psychologica, 92, 33-57.

Koehler, D. J. (1996). A strength model of probability judgments for tournaments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 66, 16-21.

Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the evaluation of one-sided evidence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 59-70.

Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1996). Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: A critical examination. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 212-219.

Redelmeier, D., Koehler, D. J., Liberman, V., & Tversky, A. (1995). Probability judgment in medicine: Discounting unspecified alternatives. Medical Decision Making, 15, 227-230.

Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J. (1994). Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547-567.

Koehler, D. J. (1994). Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 20, 461-469.

Gidron, D., Koehler, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1993). Implicit quantification of personality traits. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 19, 594-604.

Koehler, D. J. (1991). Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 499-519.